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A blog about Manufacturing, International Trade, Monetary Policy, and replication by an academic economist. My take on bitcoin is the standard boring economists' take: bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are the mother of all irrational bubbles. And, if you'd listened to me and us economistsyou're continuing to live in relative poverty as your friends get rich, with money and wealth coming out of nowhere and millionaires minted overnight. He also believes that bitcoin is in a huge bubble. After all, the logic behind bitcoin is that it is a super easy, cheap and fast way to send money.

Exactly what I needed. Part of the problems I faced were no doubt specific to me, as a US national living in Russia.

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Many bitcoin exchanges are country specific, and didn't like my Russian IP address. Others did, but required a lot of information, including a picture of my with an ID, and also a picture of me with a bank statement with my home address in the US written on it.

I ended up never getting approved, and never got a straight answer from some of these exchanges on why not. Probably, they are just minting money so fast why should they invest in customer support. But all the information required, even if I had been approved immediately, kind of shoots down some of the logic. If I'm a drug-dealer looking to accept payment in bitcoin, I'm still going to have to provide a lot of information to the exchanges.

And, while my troubles may have been unique, bitcoin isn't that easy to use. Your grandma isn't going to be buying groceries or trading bitcoin anytime soon.

Indicative of the inconvenience of buying bitcoin, there is a closed-end investment fund which traded on the stock-market that owns only bitcoin, and was recently trading at twice the par value of bitcoin see Figure below. That is, people who wanted to buy bitcoin in their brokerage accounts were too lazy to cash out their accounts and buy bitcoin directly, so they paid double the price to avoid the hassle.

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Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust In addition, the fees associated with buying bitcoins in Russia using rubles, sending them to myself in the US, and then converting them back into dollars are at least an order of magnitude larger than just buying dollars using my currency broker, and then sending money to myself directly.

Even the miner's fees are calculated in a super non-transparent way. It's probably that way for a reason. Theoretically, some other problems with bitcoin is that there is free entry.

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Anyone can create an infinite amount of cryptocurrency out of thin air. The marginal cost is zero. The saving grace is that there are network effects -- a currency becomes more valuable the more people that use it, and so it will be tough for other cryptocurrencies to displace bitcoin.

However, that can't explain why there are thousands of cryptocurrencies with huge market caps. Only of these will ultimately be the victor, and bitcoin is likely to be one of them.

The Federal Reserve would lose control over monetary policy, for example, and to the extent cryptocurrencies enable drug smugglers and hackers and others to evade the authorities and paying taxes, this should be something which governments will have a real interest in illegalizing.

Thus, there is no endgame where bitcoin replaces the US dollar, the Chinese Yuan, or the Euro as the primary currency of a major economy. It is simply too volatile, and there will be nothing to stabilize its value. It's techy, it's complicated, and few people understand it.

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Those who spent the time to learn how it really works then become part of the cult and evangelize over it. It could be compared to the spread of a religion: If many people very fervently buy into it, it could cara bermain bitcoin di mercato bitcoin indonesia a bubble that lasts a long time. This is the optimistic case for bitcoin. Or, it could be more like the spread of a disease I'm stealing this from Robert Shiller.

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To grow, the disease needs a lot of new people to infect. But, over time, there are fewer and fewer new people to infect, as most people have had the disease, and the rate of new infections crashes. Bitcoin may not be so different -- the early adopters buy in, sending the price up.

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The higher price means more news, and is a positive feedback loop as the mainstreamers start to buy. Doubt creeps into the minds of naysayers, who might have believed it to be a scam initially, but now see the price soaring, against their predictions. Usually the moment to sell is after almost everyone who is a quick adopter has already adopted, the median person has too, and the moment at which people who are typically late adopters start to invest. At that point, the economy will run out of suckers, and the price will start to stagnate and fall.

Legend has it that Joe Kennedy sold his stocks in after a shoeshine boy started giving him stock tips.


An older family member of mine was day-trading tech stocks in the s, and then bought a condo in Florida in This person is my bellwether. Given this may be a reason to buy in the near term, before the late adopters get wind and, damnit! A few bad days, and panic selling can ensue. Once it crashes, a generation of people could be so turned off by crypto they'll never touch it again. What crypto does is settle the debate over whether fundamentals drive stock prices and exchange rates.

I gave a talk at LSE a few weeks ago on my research on exchange rates and manufacturing, and someone stated their belief that exchange rates are driven by fundamentals monetary policy and so it was monetary policy which drove my results and not exchange primo cap bitcoin mercato dei capitali corp, per se.

However, as we see with bitcoin, which isn't driven by any kind of fundamental economic value, as it pays no dividends and ltc a btc high transaction fees, bubbles can happen and markets aren't that efficient.

There is never going to be a day when cara bermain bitcoin di mercato bitcoin indonesia people use "byteball bites" to buy groceries.

It also shows another reason why governments might want to tax windfall profits or large capital gains at a higher rate. Those profiting from cryptocurrency are incredibly lucky. Their "investments" don't leave any reason to deserve favorable income treatment relative to wage income.

Stock market earnings are similar. Luck is involved just as much as skill. Lastly, though, let me state my agreement with others that government-sponsored electronic currencies are probably a thing of the near future. If an electronic currency allows every transaction or most transactions to be traced by the government, it can cut down on illegal activity, narcotics, and tax evasion.

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A government could really very easily broaden the tax base, and raise more revenue while cutting taxes on law abiding citizens. This will probably help developing countries like Russia where tax evasion is rampant the most. I guess this will happen soon. Greece should do this and leave the Euro system but not the EU! Obviously, a digital currency also solves the problem of the zero lower bound on interest rates, reason enough to do it.

In any case, I don't want to give anyone cara bermain bitcoin di mercato bitcoin indonesia advice. I have no clue what will happen to the price of bitcoin, although that should be a warning. Just be for-warned that what goes up must come down.

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If you do ride the wave up, think about taking something off the table and try to remain diversified. That goes for the US stock market too, which also now looks quite overvalued Once your parents start to buy bitcoin, that's probably a good time to cash out. Posted by.